Blue Ant Media (BAMI) reached the deep-dive list through the back door. I opened the position on Thunderbird Entertainment (TBRD) in August 2025, Blue Ant acquired the company part-way through the coverage window, and the shares converted. The twelve-month mark fell on August 15, so the annual review is due. The original Thunderbird thesis was settled by the deal itself, which leaves this review to judge the acquirer instead.
The standard I apply at every annual review is fixed. Bear case no worse than -20%, base case at least +30%, bull case at least +50%, and a probability-weighted expected return above 30% over the next twelve months, all measured from today’s price rather than from my entry.
One exception exists, and this review turns on it. A bear case below the floor is acceptable when the bull case is a clear multibagger from the current price, because the shape of the payoff compensates for the depth of the downside. Losing a quarter of a position to gain the chance of doubling it is a trade I will make; losing a quarter to gain thirty percent is not. Everything below explains why that exception applies here and what it costs to invoke it.