The deep-dive selection came through a news-heavy month broadly steady: the average return across the eight positions stands at +49%, compared with +51% at the end of June. MSA was the standout with a double-digit rally, while SRB declined for a second consecutive month. Five of the eight positions delivered scheduled quarterly reports or investor updates during July; the position notes below cover each.

Markets in July

The S&P 500 closed July within a whisker of where it started, and the flat headline hid a volatile month. The questions about the payoff on AI infrastructure spending that surfaced in June kept driving rotation beneath the surface, and the final week of earnings whipped the megacaps in both directions. Under that churn, the month split cleanly into a two-week relief rally and a hawkish comedown.

The relief came from inflation. June CPI, released July 14, fell -0.4% on the month, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, as gasoline prices tumbled following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. The annual rate eased to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, core inflation came in at 2.6%, and both landed well below forecasts. Yields dropped on the release and equities rallied.

The comedown came from a refueled Iran war and the Federal Reserve. At the July 28–29 meeting, Kevin Warsh’s second as Chair, the committee held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike. Markets ended the month pricing roughly 65% odds of an increase in September, long-term yields climbed with the 30-year Treasury above 5.1%, and stocks sold off into the final days before a partial recovery on the last session.

Gold found a floor. After June’s slide toward $4,000, the metal added +0.5% in July, its first monthly gain since February, closing just above $4,000. The soft CPI print and the Fed’s hold supported the price, September-hike odds capped the recovery, and central bank demand continued, with the People’s Bank of China buying gold for a twentieth consecutive month. For the model’s materials holdings and the deep-dive miners, the sector-wide pressure of June eased even as individual names diverged.

The Russell 2000 cooled after its record first half, drifting back from the 3,000 mark it touched at the end of June to close July around 2,931. The character of this year’s U.S. small-cap rally remains an awkward fit for a value and quality discipline: unprofitable Russell 2000 companies have returned roughly +154% since mid-2025 against +34% for their profitable peers, as the market pays for AI exposure ahead of earnings. The model’s global micro-cap universe sits largely outside that trade, and in July the systematic approach beat both the S&P 500 and the U.S. small-cap index.

Model Portfolio Performance

Key Performance Metrics:

Return results (as of July 31, 2026):

• Total return (17 months): 62.7%

• S&P 500 return (same period): 29.9%

• Alpha generated: 32.8 percentage points

• Annualized return: 40.8% (vs. 20.2% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 11 of 17 months (65%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 6 completed quarters

Realized trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 56% of 125 trades (70 winners, 55 losers)

• Average return: 15.7% (winners: +42.7%, losers: -18.6%)

• Average days held: 155.9 days

• Realized multibaggers: 6

Risk-adjusted metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.62

• Sharpe Ratio: 1.82 (vs. 1.10 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 2.22 (vs. 1.59 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.83% (vs. -16.19% for S&P 500)

July was quieter on the exit side after June’s ten closures, with five positions leaving the portfolio. The best was a business-services holding realized at +18.8% after 133 days, and two long-held UK positions were closed at +6.3% and +6.1%. The two losing exits were consumer non-cyclical names at -10.5% and -11.4%. The realized count now stands at 125 trades, with the win rate at 56% and the number of realized multibaggers steady at six.

The open book strengthened where it counts: the count of open multibaggers rose from three to five. An industrial position moved to the top of the open book at +160%, and two holdings crossed the line during the month, an industrial at +103% and the position that ended June at +99.9%, now at +101%. The technology holding that crossed the +200% mark in June gave back part of that advance and stands at +133%, still the portfolio’s largest position at 3.4% of assets, with a second technology name at +122% completing the group.

Over the trailing twelve months the model returned +33.6% versus +19.5% for the index, and the annualized since-inception return of 40.8% remains roughly double the benchmark’s 20.2%. Beta of 0.62 and a maximum drawdown of -13.83%, still shallower than the S&P 500’s -16.19%, show the risk profile intact through the difficult stretch. A single month proves little, but July restored the pattern the strategy is built on: holding its ground when the index stalls and compounding through a universe the benchmark barely touches.

Model Portfolio Holdings

Current allocation stayed close to June’s shape. Industrials lead at 29.1%, followed by Technology at 19.4% and Materials at 13.2%. Energy stands at 8.7%, Consumer Cyclicals at 8.6%, and Consumer Non-Cyclicals at 5.7%. Microcaps now make up 85% of the portfolio, up from 82% last month, with small caps at the remaining 15%. Allocation charts and the full holdings breakdown appear in the attached performance report.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

July was a scheduled-news month across the deep-dive list. Two of the miners published quarterly production reports, the media position reported its first full quarter at its new scale, the newest healthcare holding delivered second-quarter results alongside a dividend increase, and another hosted its investor day. Prices diverged: MSA rallied 11%, while SRB posted a second consecutive double-digit decline.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +49%

• Average holding period: ~11 months

• Multibaggers: 2 of 8 (APM, MSA)

The three publicly available deep-dives, APM, MSA, and SRB, remain accessible to all subscribers in the deep-dives section.

Read more

The first half of 2026 is now complete, with the model at +5.8% against +10.1% for the S&P 500, a deficit of 4.3 percentage points. The deep-dive selection gave back part of May’s recovery: the average return across the eight positions eased to +51% from +64%, as the precious metals miners followed a gold price that slid toward $4,000. The larger news arrived in the final days of the month, when one of the deep-dive positions signed a cash takeover agreement, covered in a separate update and in the position notes below.

Markets in June

June ended the two-month melt-up in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 slipped -1.0%, its first monthly decline since March, even as it closed its strongest quarter in six years. The composition of the market changed more than the headline suggests: investors started questioning the payoff on AI infrastructure spending, sending Microsoft to its worst month since 2000 and Oracle to its worst since 1990, while capital rotated into financials, healthcare, and industrials.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, and the tone hardened. The statement was cut back sharply, the language pointing toward future easing was removed, and the updated projections showed a median year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with half the committee now expecting at least one hike this year. May inflation came in hot at 4.2%, driven largely by energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and markets moved from pricing cuts to pricing a possible hike by December.

Precious metals bore the brunt of that repricing. Gold fell from the mid-$4,500s at the end of May to just above $4,000 by late June, pressured by rising rate expectations and a U.S. dollar at a one-year high, while a mid-month U.S.–Iran framework agreement drained part of the safe-haven bid. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,900 from $5,400, though targets across the street still sit between $4,900 and $6,000. The gold miners surrendered part of May’s re-rating, which weighed on both the model portfolio’s materials holdings and the deep-dive miners.

The most striking development for a small-cap investor happened elsewhere: the Russell 2000 set an all-time high in late June, closing its best first half since 1991 at +21% and leading the S&P 500 by the widest margin since 2003. That rally ran through U.S. financials and domestic cyclicals, sectors the model barely touches, while the global micro-cap universe where the model operates, dominated by European industrials and the miners, had a weaker month. The broadening of the market beyond mega-cap technology remains the most constructive signal for this strategy since inception, even if June’s particular mix left the portfolio on the wrong side of it.

Model Portfolio Performance

Key Performance Metrics:

Return results (as of June 30, 2026):

• Total return (16 months): 60.5%

• S&P 500 return (same period): 29.8%

• Alpha generated: 30.7 percentage points

• Annualized return: 42.4% (vs. 21.4% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 16 months (63%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 6 completed quarters

Realized trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 56% of 120 trades (67 winners, 53 losers)

• Average return: 16.3% (winners: +44.2%, losers: -18.9%)

• Average days held: 151.6 days

• Realized multibaggers: 6

Risk-adjusted metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.62

• Sharpe Ratio: 1.82 (vs. 1.10 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 2.22 (vs. 1.59 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.83% (vs. -16.19% for S&P 500)

June was a busy month for exits, with ten positions closed at mixed results. The best trades were a technology holding realized at +24.9% and a consumer cyclical at +21.4%; the weakest was an energy-services position closed at -27.4%. The realized trade count reached 120 since inception, with the win rate steady at 56% and the count of realized multibaggers holding at six.

The portfolio’s largest position, a technology name at 4.4% of assets, crossed the +200% mark in June, a triple from entry. It leads three open multibaggers, alongside an industrial at +134% and a second technology holding at +133%. A fourth position finished the month at +99.9%, a rounding error below the line after June’s decline.

The risk profile remains intact even as the return gap widened. Beta sits at 0.62 and the maximum drawdown at -13.83%, still shallower than the S&P 500’s -16.19%, while the Sharpe Ratio of 1.82 stays well above the benchmark’s 1.10 despite compressing from earlier peaks. Over the trailing twelve months the model returned +29.4% versus +22.1% for the index, so even through the worst relative stretch since inception, the one-year number remains ahead.

The second quarter deserves a plain statement: the model gained +5.3% while the S&P 500 gained +15.1%, and the perfect quarterly record ended at five. A global micro-cap value and momentum strategy will trail when returns concentrate in the largest, most expensive names, and for four straight months it did. The systematic process keeps doing its job regardless, selling positions that lost their edge and rotating into higher-ranked candidates, and the since-inception return of +60.5% remains roughly double the index.

Model Portfolio Holdings

Current allocation shifted further toward the smallest names. Industrials lead at 31.2%, followed by Technology at 16.4% and Materials at 13.6%, the latter up from 9.7% as the ranking redirected capital back into the sector after its pullback. Consumer Non-Cyclicals stand at 8.4%, Energy at 7.9%, and Consumer Cyclicals at 6.2%. Microcaps now make up 82% of the portfolio, up from 73% last month, with small caps at the remaining 18%. Allocation charts and the full holdings breakdown appear in the attached performance report.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

June’s deep-dive story had two threads: a cash takeover agreement for one of the positions, signed in the final days of the month, and a precious metals pullback that trimmed the group’s average return.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +51%

• Average holding period: ~10 months

• Multibaggers: 2 of 8 (APM, MSA)

SRB slipped just below the multibagger threshold at +96% after a sharp June pullback in the miners. The three publicly available deep-dives, APM, MSA, and SRB, remain accessible to all subscribers in the deep-dives section.

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Year-to-date, the model now stands at +9.1% against +11.2% for the S&P 500, a deficit of 2.1 percentage points after holding a 2.1-point lead through April. The entire swing came in a single month. The deep-dive selection told a different story, posting its best month since the March correction: the average return across the eight active positions rose to +64% from +55% in April, led by a recovery in the precious metals miners even as the gold price itself eased.

Markets in May

May was a second consecutive strong month for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 adding +5.3%. Leadership stayed concentrated in the large-cap and AI-related names that drove April’s rebound, and breadth outside that cohort remained thin. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, and markets continued to price in limited easing for the remainder of 2026 given the inflation overhang from elevated energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Precious metals gave back part of April’s recovery. Gold eased from roughly $4,800 at the end of April into the $4,500–$4,600 area through May, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year benchmark approaching a one-year high, and a firmer dollar that raised the cost of bullion for overseas buyers. The structural case stayed intact, with continued central bank accumulation and major banks holding year-end targets in the $5,400–$6,300 range.

The notable divergence in May was between the metal and the miners. Gold mining equities rose even as the gold price consolidated, recovering ground after lagging April’s metals rally and re-rating on a wave of strong first-quarter earnings. That dynamic worked in favor of the deep-dive precious metals positions, which had absorbed the brunt of the March correction.

Model Portfolio Performance

The challenge in May was the same one that defined March and April: a microcap value and momentum strategy lagging a market whose gains were concentrated in the largest, most expensive names. The rotation out of precious metals that began in late March is now largely complete. Materials settled at 9.7% of the portfolio from a peak above 16% in March, while industrials grew to 34.9%, absorbing the capital the ranking system redirected toward newly attractive names. The systematic process is functioning as designed, selling positions that have lost their edge and rotating into higher-ranked candidates, and the residual drag from unwinding a sector that drove returns through 2025 has now cleared.

Return results (as of May 31, 2026):

• Total return (15 months): 65.5%

• S&P 500 return (same period): 31.2%

• Alpha generated: 34.3 percentage points

• Annualized return: 49.7% (vs. 24.3% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 15 months (67%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 5 completed quarters (100%)

Realized trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 55% of 113 trades (62 winners, 51 losers)

• Average return: 17.0% (winners: +46.7%, losers: -19.0%)

• Average days held: 151.9 days

• Realized multibaggers: 6

Risk-adjusted metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.64

• Sharpe Ratio: 2.15 (vs. 1.00 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 2.53 (vs. 1.46 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.83% (vs. -16.19% for S&P 500)

May was an active month for realized trades, with several long-held positions exiting at strong gains. The largest realized trade of the month, an industrial holding entered roughly a year earlier, was closed at +98%, narrowly short of multibagger status, alongside a consumer staple realized at +71% and two further holdings closed in the +35% to +55% range. The count of realized multibaggers held at six. The portfolio currently carries four open multibaggers, two industrials and two technology stocks, with the largest single position, a technology name, sitting near the top of the ranking.

The risk profile remains the clearest expression of the strategy’s edge. A beta of 0.64 and a maximum drawdown of -13.83%, shallower than the S&P 500’s -16.19% over the same span, show the portfolio has delivered its returns with materially less risk than the index, even through the most difficult stretch since inception. The Sharpe Ratio of 2.15 remains well above the benchmark’s 1.00.

The current quarter is tracking behind the index, an honest consequence of three straight months of underperformance, and the since-inception alpha has compressed from its February peak. What has not changed is the longer-term record: ten monthly beats in fifteen, every completed quarter ahead of the benchmark, and a return better than double the S&P 500 since inception. Stretches like this one are an expected feature of a strategy that deliberately avoids the crowded, large-cap leadership currently driving the index.

Model Portfolio Holdings

Current allocation is now spread broadly across sectors. Industrials lead at 34.9%, followed by Technology at 17.0%, Materials at 9.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclicals at 7.9%, Energy at 7.6%, and Consumer Cyclicals at 7.5%. Microcaps continue to dominate at 73% of the portfolio, with small caps making up the remaining 27%. Allocation charts and the full holdings breakdown appear in the attached performance report.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

May was a recovery month for the deep-dive selection, with the precious metals positions leading the rebound and the healthcare names mixed after a heavy week of first-quarter earnings.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +64%

• Average holding period: ~9 months

• Multibaggers: 3 of 8 (APM, MSA, SRB)

The three publicly available deep-dives, APM, MSA, and SRB, remain accessible to all subscribers in the deep-dives section.

Read more

The model portfolio gained +7.2% in April, a strong month in absolute terms but trailing the S&P 500’s narrow, semiconductor-led rebound by 3.3 percentage points. The combined effect of March’s drawdown and April’s partial recovery means the portfolio is -4.7% since the start of March versus +5.1% for the S&P 500 over the same span — a two-month gap of nearly 10 percentage points. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio remains ahead at +7.8% versus +5.7% for the S&P 500. Since inception fourteen months ago, the model has returned +63.5% versus +24.6% for the S&P 500, an alpha of 38.9 percentage points, beating the benchmark in 10 of 14 months and in all five completed quarterly periods.

The deep-dive selection held its ground during the recovery. The average return across all eight active positions stands at +55% with an average holding period of approximately eight months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as a third multibagger, recovering strongly from March’s correction. The model portfolio’s third realized multibagger gold trade came in late April when a precious metals position was sold at +209%, the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history.

Markets in April

April produced a paradoxical setup. The U.S.-Iran conflict moved into a fragile ceasefire that held through most of the month, but the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed and oil prices stayed elevated throughout. Brent crude averaged roughly $102 per barrel, peaking near $126 mid-month and ending April around $114. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, with markets continuing to price in only one cut for the remainder of 2026 given the persistent inflation overhang from energy.

Despite this backdrop, U.S. equities staged their strongest monthly advance since 2020. The S&P 500 climbed 10.5% to a record close of 7,165 on April 24, but the rally’s leadership was unusually narrow. The story was overwhelmingly about semiconductors and AI infrastructure: Intel surged approximately 50% in April — its biggest monthly gain since 1974 — and the iShares Semiconductor ETF gained more than 30% from late March. Q1 earnings provided fundamental cover, with 88% of S&P 500 reporters beating expectations at the highest rate since 2021. Outside semiconductors and AI-adjacent names, breadth was decidedly thinner.

Precious metals partially recovered. Gold climbed from approximately $4,200 at the end of March to around $4,800 by April 30, retracing roughly half of March’s decline as speculative liquidation eased. Silver also recovered, though gold mining equities followed the metals higher only modestly as capital rotated aggressively into AI infrastructure names. The structural bull case for precious metals remains intact, with major banks maintaining year-end gold targets in the $5,400–$6,300 range.

The model portfolio’s challenge in April was less about lagging the rebound than about not fully recovering March’s drawdown. The materials weighting from the precious metals run dropped from 16.2% at end of March to 9.5% by month-end as a gold miner was sold. Industrials grew from 24.8% to 30.5% to absorb the rotation. The systematic ranking is doing exactly what it should — selling stocks that have lost their edge and rotating into newly-attractive names — but the transition takes time, and during that time the portfolio carries the residual drag from a sector that benefited the strategy enormously through 2025.

Model Portfolio Performance

A +7.2% monthly gain is a strong absolute result by any standard. The relative shortfall versus the S&P 500 is best understood as the accumulated effect of two months: the model gave up more than the index in March’s precious metals correction and then recovered somewhat less in April’s narrowly-led rebound. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still +2.1 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500, and since inception alpha stands at +38.9 percentage points.

Return Results (as of Apr 30, 2026):

• Total return (14 months): +63.5%

• S&P 500 return (same period): +24.6%

• Alpha generated: 38.9 percentage points

• Annualized return: 52.4% (vs. 20.8% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 14 months (71%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 5 quarters (100%)

Realized Trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 56% of 101 trades (57 winners, 44 losers)

• Average return: 17.4% (winners: +45.5%, losers: -19.1%)

• Average days held: 144.5 days

• Realized multibaggers: 6 (the latest a gold miner realized on April 27 at +209% — the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.64

• Sharpe Ratio: 2.15 (vs. 1.00 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 2.53 (vs. 1.46 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.83% (vs. -16.19% for S&P 500)

The maximum drawdown remained at -13.83% through April, with the portfolio recovering steadily from March’s lows without setting new troughs. The Sharpe Ratio of 2.15 continues to reflect strong risk-adjusted returns, more than double the benchmark’s 1.00. Importantly, the portfolio’s maximum drawdown remains shallower than the S&P 500’s worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period — a meaningful demonstration of downside resilience even after the most challenging months since inception.

Current allocation is now spread more broadly across sectors than at any point this year. Industrials lead at 30.5%, followed by Technology at 15.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclicals at 10.4%, Materials at 9.5%, Consumer Cyclicals at 8.8%, and Energy at 8.7%. Microcaps continue to dominate at 76% of the portfolio, with small caps making up the remaining 24%.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

April was a recovery month for the deep-dive selection, with most positions regaining ground after March’s correction. The average return across all eight active positions held steady at +55%, essentially unchanged from March despite the volatility of the past two months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as the third multibagger on the list.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +55%

• Average holding period: ~8 months

• Multibaggers: 3 of 8 (APM, MSA, SRB)

The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers — you can find them in the deep-dives section.

Read more

The model portfolio declined -11.1% in March, underperforming the S&P 500's -4.9% decline. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still up +0.5% versus -4.4% for the S&P 500. Since inception thirteen months ago, the portfolio has returned +52.4% versus +12.8% for the S&P 500, outperforming by 39.7 percentage points. Despite March's drawdown, the model has beaten the benchmark in all five quarterly periods since launch — including during both up and down markets.

My deep-dive stock selection was not spared. The average return across all eight positions fell from +108% last month to +55%, driven primarily by the precious metals correction. With an average holding period of just seven months, that still represents a return well above what the model portfolio has generated over the same timeframe. APM — the portfolio’s all-time best-performing deep-dive — has been extended for another twelve months following its annual review, with a new entry price and updated targets reflecting record FY2025 results.

Markets in March

The Iran war dominated markets in March, creating the kind of cross-asset volatility not seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 triggered Iranian retaliation across the Gulf region, including attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of this critical chokepoint — through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily — transformed what might have been a contained military operation into a global energy supply shock.

Brent crude surged from roughly $70 per barrel to above $119 at its peak, with WTI settling around $100 by month-end. The immediate consequence was an inflation repricing: eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, driven by a 4.9% surge in energy costs. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting and penciled in just one rate cut for the remainder of the year — a sharp reversal from the two to three cuts markets had expected entering 2026. Bond yields climbed as investors repriced rate expectations, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.46% by March 27.

The precious metals sell-off was the most paradoxical development of the month. Gold, which entered 2026 near all-time highs above $5,500 after rallying 65% in 2025, fell approximately 14% in March — its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The mechanism is well understood but frequently misjudged by market participants: rising oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which reduces the probability of rate cuts, which strengthens the dollar, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. In a market where speculative long positions had built up aggressively during 2025’s rally, this created a self-reinforcing liquidation cycle. Silver fared even worse, declining over 20% for the month. Gold and silver miners — heavily represented in the model portfolio and deep-dive selections — fell sharply alongside the metals. The junior gold miner index (GDXJ) saw significant outflows as leveraged positions unwound.

Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, with the S&P 500’s energy sector the only one to post positive returns for the month. The broader S&P 500 closed down -4.9% for March and -4.4% for Q1 2026, its worst quarterly showing since 2022. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its October peak.

For the model portfolio, the heavy weighting in materials (16.2%) and the concentration in micro-cap stocks (77%) amplified the impact. Small-cap and micro-cap stocks, which had been outperforming since late 2025, gave back gains as risk appetite collapsed. European and international stocks — where the model holds significant exposure — faced additional headwinds as the energy crisis weighed more heavily on energy-dependent economies.

Model Portfolio Performance

March was the first month where the model significantly underperformed the benchmark, generating -11.1% versus -4.9% for the S&P 500 — an excess return of -6.2% for the month. The magnitude of the drawdown reflects the portfolio’s concentration in sectors and market caps that bore the brunt of the war-driven sell-off.

Return Results (as of Mar 31, 2026):

• Total return (13 months): +52.4%

• S&P 500 return (same period): +12.8%

• Alpha generated: 39.7 percentage points

• Annualized return: 47.4% (vs. 11.7% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 13 months (77%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 5 quarters (100%)

Realized Trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 55% of 98 trades (54 winners, 44 losers)

• Average return: 15.1% (winners: +42.9%, losers: -19.1%)

• Average days held: 141.5 days

• Realized multibaggers: 5 (the latest being a precious metals miner realized on March 30 at +338% — the single largest realized trade in portfolio history)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.21

• Sharpe Ratio: 4.07 (vs. 1.12 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 5.13 (vs. 1.49 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.8% (vs. -16.2% for S&P 500)

The maximum drawdown increased from -12.2% to -13.8% this month as the portfolio experienced its sharpest intra-month decline since inception. The drawdown remains below the S&P 500’s -16.2% worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period, and the Sharpe Ratio of 4.07 continues to indicate exceptional risk-adjusted performance despite a very difficult month.

The portfolio’s low beta of 0.21 is worth emphasizing in context. The model’s returns are driven overwhelmingly by stock-specific selection rather than broad market exposure. In months where broad market factors dominate — as in March, when macro forces drove correlations sharply higher across asset classes — a low-beta portfolio with concentrated sector exposures can temporarily underperform. The systematic approach does not attempt to time macroeconomic events; it captures alpha through persistent factor exposures that compound over time.

Current allocation remains concentrated in micro-caps (77%) and small caps (23%), with Industrials (24.8%), Technology (18.6%), and Materials (16.2%) as the largest sector exposures.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

March brought the most challenging month for the deep-dive portfolio since its inception. The precious metals correction — gold’s worst month since 2008 and silver’s sharpest decline in over a decade — weighed heavily on the three mining positions that have driven the majority of deep-dive returns. APM completed its 12-month annual review and has been extended for another year with updated targets.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +55%

• Average holding period: ~7 months

• Multibaggers: 2 of 8 (APM, MSA - both stocks reached their bull case target)

The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers — you can find them in the deep-dives section.

Read more