<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer - Investing with a Quantitative Edge: Portfolio]]></title><description><![CDATA[Weekly update of The Alpha Engineer portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/portfolio</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D4WC!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccec7099-72e2-4a46-8748-121a3b294a14_1200x1200.png</url><title>The Alpha Engineer - Investing with a Quantitative Edge: Portfolio</title><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/portfolio</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 16 May 2026 07:35:08 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Cosbro bv]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[thealphaengineer@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[thealphaengineer@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[thealphaengineer@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[thealphaengineer@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - May 10, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-may-10-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-may-10-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 10:17:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aaf2937a-0b68-4f76-9f9b-04c4ab73797f_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Performance - April, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-april-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-april-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 16:52:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>April delivered a strong recovery from March&#8217;s drawdown, though not enough to fully retrace the loss. A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire held through most of the month, and despite oil prices remaining elevated, equities rallied hard on the back of strong Q1 earnings and surging AI infrastructure spending. The S&amp;P 500 rallied <strong>+10.5%</strong>, its strongest monthly performance since 2020, while gold partially retraced its March decline as the speculative liquidation in precious metals eased.</p><p>The model portfolio gained <strong>+7.2%</strong> in April, a strong month in absolute terms but trailing the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s narrow, semiconductor-led rebound by <strong>3.3 percentage points</strong>. The combined effect of March&#8217;s drawdown and April&#8217;s partial recovery means the portfolio is <strong>-4.7%</strong> since the start of March versus <strong>+5.1%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500 over the same span &#8212; a two-month gap of nearly 10 percentage points. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio remains ahead at <strong>+7.8%</strong> versus <strong>+5.7%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500. Since inception fourteen months ago, the model has returned <strong>+63.5%</strong> versus <strong>+24.6%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500, an alpha of <strong>38.9 percentage points</strong>, beating the benchmark in <strong>10 of 14 months</strong> and in all <strong>five completed quarterly periods</strong>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:117541,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/196441292?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFGq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28f9dee3-0bf6-43fc-a5be-2685d6f07f75_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The deep-dive selection held its ground during the recovery. The average return across all eight active positions stands at <strong>+55%</strong> with an average holding period of approximately eight months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as a third multibagger, recovering strongly from March&#8217;s correction. The model portfolio&#8217;s third realized multibagger gold trade came in late April when a precious metals position was sold at <strong>+209%</strong>, the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history.</p><h2>Markets in April</h2><p>April produced a paradoxical setup. The U.S.-Iran conflict moved into a fragile ceasefire that held through most of the month, but the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed and oil prices stayed elevated throughout. Brent crude averaged roughly <strong>$102 per barrel</strong>, peaking near $126 mid-month and ending April around <strong>$114</strong>. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, with markets continuing to price in only one cut for the remainder of 2026 given the persistent inflation overhang from energy.</p><p>Despite this backdrop, U.S. equities staged their strongest monthly advance since 2020. The S&amp;P 500 climbed <strong>10.5%</strong> to a record close of <strong>7,165</strong> on April 24, but the rally&#8217;s leadership was unusually narrow. The story was overwhelmingly about semiconductors and AI infrastructure: Intel surged approximately <strong>50%</strong> in April &#8212; its biggest monthly gain since 1974 &#8212; and the iShares Semiconductor ETF gained more than <strong>30%</strong> from late March. Q1 earnings provided fundamental cover, with <strong>88%</strong> of S&amp;P 500 reporters beating expectations at the highest rate since 2021. Outside semiconductors and AI-adjacent names, breadth was decidedly thinner.</p><p>Precious metals partially recovered. Gold climbed from approximately <strong>$4,200</strong> at the end of March to around <strong>$4,800</strong> by April 30, retracing roughly half of March&#8217;s decline as speculative liquidation eased. Silver also recovered, though gold mining equities followed the metals higher only modestly as capital rotated aggressively into AI infrastructure names. The structural bull case for precious metals remains intact, with major banks maintaining year-end gold targets in the <strong>$5,400&#8211;$6,300</strong> range.</p><p>The model portfolio&#8217;s challenge in April was less about lagging the rebound than about not fully recovering March&#8217;s drawdown. The materials weighting from the precious metals run dropped from <strong>16.2%</strong> at end of March to <strong>9.5%</strong> by month-end as a gold miner was sold. Industrials grew from <strong>24.8%</strong> to <strong>30.5%</strong> to absorb the rotation. The systematic ranking is doing exactly what it should &#8212; selling stocks that have lost their edge and rotating into newly-attractive names &#8212; but the transition takes time, and during that time the portfolio carries the residual drag from a sector that benefited the strategy enormously through 2025.</p><h2>Model Portfolio Performance</h2><p>A <strong>+7.2%</strong> monthly gain is a strong absolute result by any standard. The relative shortfall versus the S&amp;P 500 is best understood as the accumulated effect of two months: the model gave up more than the index in March&#8217;s precious metals correction and then recovered somewhat less in April&#8217;s narrowly-led rebound. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still <strong>+2.1 percentage points</strong> ahead of the S&amp;P 500, and since inception alpha stands at <strong>+38.9 percentage points</strong>.</p><p><strong>Return Results (as of Apr 30, 2026):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total return (14 months): <strong>+63.5%</strong></p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500 return (same period): <strong>+24.6%</strong></p></li><li><p>Alpha generated: <strong>38.9 percentage points</strong></p></li><li><p>Annualized return: <strong>52.4%</strong> (vs. 20.8% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Monthly beats: <strong>10 of 14 months (71%)</strong></p></li><li><p>Quarterly beats: <strong>5 of 5 quarters (100%)</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Realized Trades (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Win rate: <strong>56%</strong> of 101 trades (57 winners, 44 losers)</p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>17.4%</strong> (winners: <strong>+45.5%</strong>, losers: <strong>-19.1%</strong>)</p></li><li><p>Average days held: <strong>144.5</strong> days</p></li><li><p>Realized multibaggers: <strong>6</strong> (the latest a gold miner realized on April 27 at <strong>+209%</strong> &#8212; the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Beta: <strong>0.64</strong></p></li><li><p>Sharpe Ratio: <strong>2.15</strong> (vs. 1.00 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Sortino Ratio: <strong>2.53</strong> (vs. 1.46 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Maximum Drawdown: <strong>-13.83%</strong> (vs. -16.19% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li></ul><p>The maximum drawdown remained at <strong>-13.83%</strong> through April, with the portfolio recovering steadily from March&#8217;s lows without setting new troughs. The Sharpe Ratio of <strong>2.15</strong> continues to reflect strong risk-adjusted returns, more than double the benchmark&#8217;s <strong>1.00</strong>. Importantly, the portfolio&#8217;s maximum drawdown remains shallower than the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period &#8212; a meaningful demonstration of downside resilience even after the most challenging months since inception.</p><p>Current allocation is now spread more broadly across sectors than at any point this year. Industrials lead at <strong>30.5%</strong>, followed by Technology at <strong>15.9%</strong>, Consumer Non-Cyclicals at <strong>10.4%</strong>, Materials at <strong>9.5%</strong>, Consumer Cyclicals at <strong>8.8%</strong>, and Energy at <strong>8.7%</strong>. Microcaps continue to dominate at <strong>76%</strong> of the portfolio, with small caps making up the remaining <strong>24%</strong>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png" width="1165" height="285" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:285,&quot;width&quot;:1165,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:68579,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/196441292?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SHTs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2983ae8-42fd-4b09-b98b-1ab194c95a32_1165x285.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>Deep-Dive Stock Performance</h2><p>April was a recovery month for the deep-dive selection, with most positions regaining ground after March&#8217;s correction. The average return across all eight active positions held steady at <strong>+55%</strong>, essentially unchanged from March despite the volatility of the past two months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as the third multibagger on the list.</p><p><strong>Deep-Dive Summary</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total positions: <strong>8</strong></p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>+55%</strong></p></li><li><p>Average holding period: <strong>~8 months</strong></p></li><li><p>Multibaggers: <strong>3 of 8</strong> (APM, MSA, SRB)</p></li></ul><p>The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers &#8212; you can find them in the deep-dives section.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - May 3, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-may-3-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-may-3-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2026 10:02:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6c21814e-f1dc-43e9-bc2b-b9076101866f_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Apr 26, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-apr-26-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-apr-26-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 10:41:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52d44112-6fce-4e3a-b26c-773263756f80_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Apr 5, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-apr-5-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-apr-5-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 10:31:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e36382ce-e3ee-4ce9-96ac-4cc256c88ab7_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Performance - March, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-march-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-march-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 19:40:15 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>March was the worst month for the model portfolio since its launch thirteen months ago. The U.S.-Iran war, which escalated sharply after strikes began on February 28, sent shockwaves through global markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, sending Brent crude above $100 for the first time since 2022 and triggering a cascade through equities, bonds, and precious metals alike. The S&amp;P 500 posted its worst quarterly performance since 2022. Gold &#8212; counterintuitively &#8212; suffered its steepest monthly decline since October 2008, falling approximately 14% as the oil shock reignited inflation fears and eliminated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.</p><p>The model portfolio declined <strong>-11.1%</strong> in March, underperforming the S&amp;P 500's <strong>-4.9%</strong> decline. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still up <strong>+0.5%</strong> versus <strong>-4.4%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500. Since inception thirteen months ago, the portfolio has returned <strong>+52.4%</strong> versus <strong>+12.8%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500, outperforming by <strong>39.7 percentage points</strong>. Despite March's drawdown, the model has beaten the benchmark in all five quarterly periods since launch &#8212; including during both up and down markets.</p><p>My deep-dive stock selection was not spared. The average return across all eight positions fell from <strong>+108%</strong> last month to <strong>+55%</strong>, driven primarily by the precious metals correction. With an average holding period of just seven months, that still represents a return well above what the model portfolio has generated over the same timeframe. APM &#8212; the portfolio&#8217;s all-time best-performing deep-dive &#8212; has been extended for another twelve months following its <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/deep-dive-update-e36">annual review</a>, with a new entry price and updated targets reflecting record FY2025 results. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Markets in March</h2><p>The Iran war dominated markets in March, creating the kind of cross-asset volatility not seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 triggered Iranian retaliation across the Gulf region, including attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of this critical chokepoint &#8212; through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily &#8212; transformed what might have been a contained military operation into a global energy supply shock.</p><p>Brent crude surged from roughly $70 per barrel to above $119 at its peak, with WTI settling around $100 by month-end. The immediate consequence was an inflation repricing: eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, driven by a 4.9% surge in energy costs. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting and penciled in just one rate cut for the remainder of the year &#8212; a sharp reversal from the two to three cuts markets had expected entering 2026. Bond yields climbed as investors repriced rate expectations, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.46% by March 27.</p><p>The precious metals sell-off was the most paradoxical development of the month. Gold, which entered 2026 near all-time highs above $5,500 after rallying 65% in 2025, fell approximately 14% in March &#8212; its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The mechanism is well understood but frequently misjudged by market participants: rising oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which reduces the probability of rate cuts, which strengthens the dollar, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. In a market where speculative long positions had built up aggressively during 2025&#8217;s rally, this created a self-reinforcing liquidation cycle. Silver fared even worse, declining over 20% for the month. Gold and silver miners &#8212; heavily represented in the model portfolio and deep-dive selections &#8212; fell sharply alongside the metals. The junior gold miner index (GDXJ) saw significant outflows as leveraged positions unwound.</p><p>Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, with the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s energy sector the only one to post positive returns for the month. The broader S&amp;P 500 closed down <strong>-4.9%</strong> for March and <strong>-4.4%</strong> for Q1 2026, its worst quarterly showing since 2022. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its October peak.</p><p>For the model portfolio, the heavy weighting in materials (<strong>16.2%</strong>) and the concentration in micro-cap stocks (<strong>77%</strong>) amplified the impact. Small-cap and micro-cap stocks, which had been outperforming since late 2025, gave back gains as risk appetite collapsed. European and international stocks &#8212; where the model holds significant exposure &#8212; faced additional headwinds as the energy crisis weighed more heavily on energy-dependent economies.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Model Portfolio Performance</h2><p>March was the first month where the model significantly underperformed the benchmark, generating <strong>-11.1%</strong> versus <strong>-4.9%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500 &#8212; an excess return of <strong>-6.2%</strong> for the month. The magnitude of the drawdown reflects the portfolio&#8217;s concentration in sectors and market caps that bore the brunt of the war-driven sell-off.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:114607,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/192846232?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GSvZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e897cac-14b4-4ecd-87f7-630350d6ffb8_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Return Results (as of Mar 31, 2026):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total return (13 months): <strong>+52.4%</strong></p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500 return (same period): <strong>+12.8%</strong></p></li><li><p>Alpha generated: <strong>39.7 percentage points</strong></p></li><li><p>Annualized return: <strong>47.4%</strong> (vs. 11.7% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Monthly beats: <strong>10 of 13 months (77%)</strong></p></li><li><p>Quarterly beats: <strong>5 of 5 quarters (100%)</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Realized Trades (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Win rate: <strong>55%</strong> of 98 trades (54 winners, 44 losers)</p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>15.1%</strong> (winners: <strong>+42.9%</strong>, losers: <strong>-19.1%</strong>)</p></li><li><p>Average days held: <strong>141.5</strong> days</p></li><li><p>Realized multibaggers: <strong>5</strong> (the latest being a precious metals miner realized on March 30 at <strong>+338%</strong> &#8212; the single largest realized trade in portfolio history)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Beta: <strong>0.21</strong></p></li><li><p>Sharpe Ratio: <strong>4.07</strong> (vs. 1.12 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Sortino Ratio: <strong>5.13</strong> (vs. 1.49 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Maximum Drawdown: <strong>-13.8%</strong> (vs. -16.2% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li></ul><p>The maximum drawdown increased from <strong>-12.2%</strong> to <strong>-13.8%</strong> this month as the portfolio experienced its sharpest intra-month decline since inception. The drawdown remains below the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s <strong>-16.2%</strong> worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period, and the Sharpe Ratio of <strong>4.07</strong> continues to indicate exceptional risk-adjusted performance despite a very difficult month.</p><p>The portfolio&#8217;s low beta of <strong>0.21</strong> is worth emphasizing in context. The model&#8217;s returns are driven overwhelmingly by stock-specific selection rather than broad market exposure. In months where broad market factors dominate &#8212; as in March, when macro forces drove correlations sharply higher across asset classes &#8212; a low-beta portfolio with concentrated sector exposures can temporarily underperform. The systematic approach does not attempt to time macroeconomic events; it captures alpha through persistent factor exposures that compound over time.</p><p>Current allocation remains concentrated in micro-caps (<strong>77%</strong>) and small caps (<strong>23%</strong>), with Industrials (<strong>24.8%</strong>), Technology (<strong>18.6%</strong>), and Materials (<strong>16.2%</strong>) as the largest sector exposures.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png" width="1400" height="345" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:345,&quot;width&quot;:1400,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:90438,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/192846232?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8jRZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd63fb5b0-f76b-47b3-8136-65e0d7f9a8f5_1400x345.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h2>Deep-Dive Stock Performance</h2><p>March brought the most challenging month for the deep-dive portfolio since its inception. The precious metals correction &#8212; gold&#8217;s worst month since 2008 and silver&#8217;s sharpest decline in over a decade &#8212; weighed heavily on the three mining positions that have driven the majority of deep-dive returns. APM completed its 12-month annual review and has been extended for another year with updated targets.</p><p><strong>Deep-Dive Summary</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total positions: <strong>8</strong></p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>+55% </strong></p></li><li><p>Average holding period: <strong>~7 months</strong></p></li><li><p>Multibaggers: <strong>2 of 8</strong> (APM, MSA - both stocks reached their bull case target)</p></li></ul><p>The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers &#8212; you can find them in the <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/deep-dives">deep-dives section</a>.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Mar 29, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-29-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-29-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:02:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52f10a97-1d49-4c90-8ebd-4f4b17edc3c8_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Mar 22, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-22-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-22-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 11:31:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/172eb28e-170e-4af1-b057-87b3cbd1f3fa_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Mar 15, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-15-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-15-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 15 Mar 2026 11:03:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4d99ec3a-5b68-467e-b973-c95cfe901b63_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Mar 08, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-08-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-08-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 12:36:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e21b8fb5-ca59-4a22-ae54-63d1593a5aeb_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[One Year of The Alpha Engineer: +71.5%]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/one-year-of-the-alpha-engineer-715</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/one-year-of-the-alpha-engineer-715</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2026 14:26:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On February 27th, 2025, I launched The Alpha Engineer model portfolio with a straightforward thesis: a disciplined, systematic process of buying and selling stocks based on a sound and thoroughly back-tested and live-tested multi-factor ranking that engineers alpha. The model uses factors that work in markets on both sides of the Atlantic, grounded in sound principles including value, momentum, and quality. One year later, the results speak for themselves. The portfolio has returned <strong>+71.5%</strong> versus <strong>+18.6%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500 &#8212; outperforming by <strong>52.9 percentage points</strong> in its first twelve months. A $10,000 investment at inception would now be worth <strong>$17,150</strong>, compared to <strong>$11,860</strong> in the S&amp;P 500.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:109523,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/189752240?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Wr2t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9380e972-89fe-409c-9e40-5d286d0e1ae4_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The model has beaten the benchmark in <strong>10 of 12 months (83%)</strong> and in all five quarterly periods since inception, including the only down quarter for the S&amp;P 500. With a Sharpe Ratio of <strong>3.80</strong> versus <strong>1.31</strong> for the benchmark and a maximum drawdown of <strong>-12.2%</strong> versus <strong>-16.2%</strong> for the index, the portfolio has delivered strong absolute returns with superior risk-adjusted performance.</p><p>February itself added another strong chapter. The model generated <strong>+5.8%</strong> while the S&amp;P 500 declined <strong>-0.9%</strong>, an excess return of <strong>+6.7%</strong> for the month. Year-to-date, the portfolio is now up <strong>+13.1%</strong> versus just <strong>+0.6%</strong> for the benchmark. This month also brought a new deep-dive stock and some notable market developments including the Supreme Court striking down IEEPA tariffs on February 20th.</p><p>The deep-dive stocks continue to deliver. The average return across all eight positions now stands at <strong>+108%</strong>. The four deep-dives published in the first six months average <strong>+217%</strong>, with three of those now multibaggers. Three of the four recent healthcare positions remain near their entry points, and with geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty continuing to drive market volatility, the coming weeks may offer attractive entry opportunities as key catalysts approach. The fourth received significant pipeline news today that will require a reassessment &#8212; paid subscribers will find a full update below.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Markets in February</h2><p>February was a turbulent month shaped by a landmark Supreme Court decision, renewed tariff uncertainty, and a deepening rotation away from mega-cap technology stocks. The S&amp;P 500 finished the month down approximately <strong>-0.9%</strong>, its worst monthly performance since March. The Dow held up somewhat better, while the Nasdaq dropped roughly <strong>-3%</strong> as AI-related concerns weighed on the sector.</p><p>The dominant event was the Supreme Court&#8217;s 6-3 ruling on February 20th that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. The decision struck down the sweeping reciprocal tariffs imposed in 2025, estimated to have raised over $160 billion from U.S. importers. Markets initially rallied on the ruling before giving back gains as President Trump responded within hours by imposing new 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24th. This replacement authority expires after 150 days unless Congress votes to extend it, injecting further uncertainty heading into the midterm election season. Markets ended the week lower after a hotter-than-expected producer price index report on the final trading day added sticky inflation to the list of investor concerns.</p><p>The small-cap renaissance that began in January continued to gain momentum. Small-cap stocks outperformed large caps by approximately 4 percentage points in the first six weeks of the year, driven by a narrowing valuation gap, improving small-cap earnings growth (projected at 18-22% for the full year versus 13% for large caps), and the beneficial effects of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cuts in late 2025. The sector rotation is notable: energy, materials, and consumer staples are leading the S&amp;P 500 in 2026, while technology lags. This environment plays directly into the model portfolio&#8217;s strengths, with its concentration in microcaps (<strong>73%</strong>), small caps (<strong>27%</strong>), and heavy weightings in materials (<strong>27.3%</strong>) and industrials (<strong>25.5%</strong>).</p><p>Gold prices remained elevated throughout February, trading between approximately $4,900 and $5,200 per ounce. After January&#8217;s sharp spike above $5,500 and subsequent correction, February saw a more orderly consolidation with gold ending the month around <strong>$5,275</strong>. The precious metal is now up over 75% since early 2025, driven by persistent central bank buying (863 tonnes in 2025), geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. The portfolio&#8217;s precious metals exposure, led by APM at <strong>8.7%</strong> and GG at <strong>8.8%</strong> of the portfolio, continues to benefit from this structural tailwind.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Model Portfolio Performance</h2><p>February marked another month of meaningful outperformance, with the model generating <strong>+5.82%</strong> versus <strong>-0.86%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500 &#8212; an excess return of <strong>+6.69%</strong> for the month.</p><p><strong>Return Results (as of Feb 27, 2026):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total return (12 months): <strong>71.5%</strong></p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500 return (same period): <strong>18.6%</strong></p></li><li><p>Alpha generated: <strong>52.9 percentage points</strong></p></li><li><p>Monthly beats: <strong>10 of 12 months (83%)</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Realized Trades (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Win rate: <strong>54%</strong> of 84 trades (45 winners, 39 losers)</p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>12.4%</strong> (winners: <strong>+38.8%</strong>, losers: <strong>-18.0%</strong>)</p></li><li><p>Average days held: <strong>126</strong> days</p></li><li><p>Portfolio turnover: <strong>119%</strong> annualized</p></li><li><p>Realized multibaggers: <strong>4</strong> (MSA +184%, BKTI +165%, AAC +126%, NELLY +102%)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Beta: <strong>0.24</strong></p></li><li><p>Sharpe Ratio: <strong>3.80</strong> (vs. 1.31 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Sortino Ratio: <strong>4.86</strong> (vs. 1.70 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Maximum Drawdown: <strong>-12.2%</strong> (vs. -16.2% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li></ul><p>The Sharpe Ratio of <strong>3.80</strong> and Sortino Ratio of <strong>4.86</strong> remain exceptional after a full year of live trading. This is live performance with 1% transaction and slippage costs applied to every trade. The portfolio&#8217;s low beta of <strong>0.24</strong> demonstrates that the majority of returns come from stock-specific selection rather than broad market exposure.</p><p>February saw the realization of the MSA (Mineros SA) position from the model portfolio, closing on February 23rd at a <strong>+184%</strong> return over 266 days. This was the single best realized trade in the portfolio&#8217;s history.</p><p>The portfolio currently holds five multibaggers &#8212; APM (<strong>+641%</strong>), GG (<strong>+417%</strong>), BYGGP (<strong>+189%</strong>), PXM (<strong>+123%</strong>), and WAS (<strong>+107%</strong>) &#8212; with several other positions showing strong returns. Combined with four realized multibagger trades, the model has produced nine multibaggers in its first year. This consistent ability to capture outliers across different sectors and geographies is precisely why the top of the ranking serves as the primary hunting ground for my deep-dive stock selection. As of the end of February, the two largest positions remain precious metals miners: GG (Golconda Gold) at 8.8% and APM (Andean Precious Metals) at 8.7%.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg" width="1456" height="360" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:360,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:86919,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/189752240?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DDCQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc3e461c-57c1-41ad-850e-4ef87e1d041f_1614x399.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><div><hr></div><h2>Deep-Dive Stock Performance</h2><p>A new position was added in February (see <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/canadian-healthcare-small-cap-half-peer-multiple">deep-dive</a>).</p><p><strong>Deep-Dive Summary</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total positions: <strong>8</strong></p></li><li><p>Average return across all 8 positions: <strong>+108%</strong></p></li><li><p>Multibaggers: <strong>3 of 8</strong> (APM, MSA, SRB)</p></li></ul><p>The three multibagger deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) are available to all subscribers &#8212; you can find them in the <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/deep-dives">deep-dives section</a>.</p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Mar 01, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-01-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-mar-01-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2026 11:02:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/56fa2633-3277-4550-8d96-32485cda85b1_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Feb 22, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-22-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-22-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2026 11:56:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/20a48bef-3223-4d1c-866e-835b86ab7e32_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Feb 15, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-15-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-15-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2026 11:01:42 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/600fdf06-82bd-4228-aac8-6661d643aacc_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Feb 8, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-8-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-8-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 11:00:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2ad7376-0f58-418e-9d3c-57c973d74b08_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Performance - January, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-january-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-january-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2026 17:36:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The model portfolio delivered <strong>+6.9%</strong> in January while the S&amp;P 500 gained just <strong>+1.5%</strong>, extending our streak to 9 of 11 months beating the benchmark. Since inception on February 27th, the portfolio has now returned <strong>+62.1%</strong> versus <strong>+19.7%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500&#8212;outperforming by <strong>42.4 percentage points</strong> in just eleven months. On an annualized basis, the model is returning <strong>68.7%</strong> versus <strong>21.5%</strong> for the benchmark.</p><p>The deep-dive stocks continue their remarkable run. The average return across all seven positions now stands at <strong>+118%</strong>, with the original four positions averaging <strong>+203%</strong>. Three of those four are multibaggers. January brought two significant updates: MSA (Mineros SA) reached its bull case target on January 26th, and the Thunderbird Entertainment acquisition by Blue Ant Media closed on January 28th.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>Markets in January</h2><p>January capped a strong start to 2026 for U.S. equities, with the S&amp;P 500 posting a modest <strong>+1.4%</strong> gain for the month&#8212;triggering the historically bullish &#8220;January Barometer.&#8221; The index reached new all-time highs early in the month before volatility returned in the final days. </p><p>Small caps staged a breakout in January. The Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs and significantly outperformed large caps, with the index gaining approximately <strong>5.3%</strong> for the month&#8212;far exceeding the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s advance. This &#8220;Great Rotation&#8221; saw investors shift capital from mega-cap technology stocks toward domestically focused smaller companies. The valuation gap between small and large caps had reached a 25-year extreme by late 2025, creating a &#8220;coiled spring&#8221; effect as lower interest rates and favorable domestic policies attracted capital to the small-cap universe. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the <strong>3.50%-3.75%</strong> range following three consecutive cuts in late 2025. </p><p>Precious metals experienced extreme volatility in January. Gold and silver went parabolic in the final week of the month, with gold spiking above <strong>$5,500</strong> per ounce on January 29th before a sharp correction brought prices back to around <strong>$5,000-$5,100</strong> by month-end. This volatility had a pronounced impact on the model portfolio. The systematic ranking currently holds approximately <strong>24%</strong> in precious metals miners&#8212;not by design, but because these stocks scored exceptionally well on the model&#8217;s value and momentum factors. On January 28th, the portfolio reached a peak of <strong>+70.8%</strong> since inception before the metals correction pulled returns back to <strong>+62.1%</strong> by January 30th&#8212;a dramatic <strong>8.7 percentage point</strong> swing in just two trading days.</p><p>This illustrates both the power and the risk of a systematic approach. The model identified precious metal miners such as GG and APM well before their major runs&#8212;simply because they ranked highly on fundamental and momentum metrics. The concentration is an outcome of the ranking system, not a deliberate sector bet. When the model&#8217;s factors align with a sector experiencing strong tailwinds, as precious metals have with gold&#8217;s <strong>+65%</strong> gain since early 2025, the results can be exceptional. But the same concentration creates volatility when that sector corrects. The model will continue to hold these positions as long as they remain in the top 10% of the ranking&#8212;and will systematically exit when they no longer qualify.</p><h2>Model Portfolio Performance</h2><p>January marked another strong month for the model, generating <strong>+6.87%</strong> versus just <strong>+1.47%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500&#8212;an excess return of <strong>+5.40%</strong> for the month.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:104953,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/186876251?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LGSP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d5db492-7a52-45d7-9753-51c590efc9d2_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Return Results (as of Jan 30, 2026):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total return (11 months): <strong>62.1%</strong></p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500 return (same period): <strong>19.7%</strong></p></li><li><p>Alpha generated: <strong>42.4%</strong></p></li><li><p>Annualized return: <strong>68.7%</strong></p></li><li><p>Monthly beats: <strong>9 of 11 months (82%)</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>Realized Trades (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Win rate: <strong>52%</strong> of 75 trades</p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>10.3%</strong></p></li><li><p>Average days held: <strong>113.5</strong> days</p></li><li><p>Portfolio turnover: <strong>124%</strong> (135% annualized)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Beta: <strong>0.25</strong></p></li><li><p>Sharpe Ratio: <strong>3.48</strong> (vs. 1.25 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Sortino Ratio: <strong>4.55</strong> (vs. 1.61 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Maximum Drawdown: <strong>-12.2%</strong> (vs. -16.2% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li></ul><p>The Sharpe Ratio of <strong>3.48</strong> remains exceptional, indicating strong risk-adjusted performance well above the benchmark. The portfolio&#8217;s low beta of <strong>0.25</strong> demonstrates the model&#8217;s focus on idiosyncratic value opportunities rather than broad market exposure.</p><p>As of January 30th, the portfolio&#8217;s two largest positions remain precious metals miners: GG (Golconda Gold) at <strong>7.8%</strong> and APM (Andean Precious Metals) at <strong>7.7%</strong>. The portfolio holds four multibaggers&#8212;three precious metals miners and a Swedish industrial stock&#8212;with a fifth position (Polish industrial) sitting at +99.5%, just below the multibagger threshold.</p><p>Current allocation remains concentrated in microcaps (<strong>72%</strong>) and small caps (<strong>28%</strong>), with Materials (<strong>28.6%</strong>) and Industrials (<strong>21.9%</strong>) as the largest sector exposures.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg" width="1456" height="357" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:357,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:86033,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/186876251?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pqcL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde3e786-3552-4e0b-a2a0-5d337e398608_1614x396.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>Deep-Dive Stock Performance</h1><p>January brought two significant developments for the deep-dive positions, alongside continued strong performance from the precious metals miners.</p><p><strong>Deep-Dive Summary</strong></p><ul><li><p>Average return across all 7 positions: <strong>+118%</strong></p></li><li><p>Original 4 positions (pre-November): <strong>+203%</strong> average</p></li><li><p>Multibaggers: <strong>3 of 7</strong> (APM, MSA, SRB)</p></li></ul><p>The three multibagger deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) are available to all subscribers&#8212;you can find them in the <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/deep-dives">deep-dives section</a>.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Feb 1, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-1-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-feb-1-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 2026 11:03:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c22def21-c5aa-43a6-b804-f23dd6020fb5_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Performance - December 2025 & Full Year Review]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-2025</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-performance-2025</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:24:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e8bc1b48-2df1-4fbe-abb3-829b699fab8a_1446x1038.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The model portfolio closed 2025 with an exceptional final month, delivering <strong>+6.7%</strong> in December while the S&amp;P 500 was essentially flat at +0.1%. For the full year since inception on February 28th, the portfolio generated <strong>+51.7%</strong> total return versus <strong>+17.9%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500&#8212;outperforming the benchmark by <strong>33.8 percentage points</strong> in just ten months.</p><p>The deep-dive stocks continue to deliver remarkable results. The average return across all seven positions stands at <strong>+108%</strong>, with the original four positions added before November averaging <strong>+186%</strong>. Three of those four are multibaggers, led by APM (Andean Precious Metals) at nearly <strong>+500%</strong>.</p><p>I am very pleased with these results, both for The Alpha Engineer and personally. Following my model and deep-dive selection, my personal &#8216;Alpha Engineer&#8217; portfolio achieved a return of <strong>+74.73%</strong> in 2025 (euro denominated, measured from January 1st to December 31st, as I started prior to the launch of The Alpha Engineer).</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2><strong>Markets in December</strong></h2><p>December 2025 capped a strong year for U.S. equities, with the S&amp;P 500 finishing essentially flat for the month but posting a <strong>+16.4%</strong> gain for the full year&#8212;the third consecutive year of double-digit returns. The index briefly touched an all-time high above 6,930 on December 24th before giving back some gains in the final trading days.</p><p>The Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive interest rate cut on December 10th, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This continued easing provided meaningful support for interest-rate-sensitive sectors, particularly small caps and financials.</p><p>Small caps staged a dramatic breakout in December. The Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs, reaching 2,590 before consolidating around 2,500 by month-end. This &#8220;Great Rotation&#8221; saw investors shift capital from mega-cap technology toward domestically focused smaller companies. The Russell 2000 gained approximately 13% for the full year, with much of that performance concentrated in the final quarter.</p><p>Precious metals had an exceptional year. Gold closed 2025 at over $4,300 per ounce, up <strong>+66%</strong> for the year&#8212;its best annual performance since 1979. Silver outpaced gold dramatically, surging <strong>+144%</strong> to approximately $70 per ounce. Both metals hit fresh all-time highs in December, supported by central bank demand, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of continued monetary easing. This environment proved highly favorable for the precious metals miners in both the model portfolio and deep-dive selections.</p><h2><strong>Model Portfolio Performance</strong></h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png" width="1446" height="1038" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1038,&quot;width&quot;:1446,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:133317,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/183908722?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CVzE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff40960aa-25d0-42e9-86cb-4eb3fbcc6666_1446x1038.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>December marked the second-best monthly performance since inception, with the model generating <strong>+6.72%</strong> versus just <strong>+0.08%</strong> for the S&amp;P 500&#8212;an excess return of <strong>+6.64%</strong> for the month. This strong finish brought the full-year results to:</p><p><strong>Return Results (Feb 28 - Dec 31, 2025):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Total return (10 months): <strong>51.7%</strong></p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500 return (same period): <strong>17.9%</strong></p></li><li><p>Alpha generated: <strong>33.8%</strong></p></li><li><p>Annualized return: <strong>65.8%</strong></p></li><li><p>Monthly beats: <strong>8 of 10</strong> full months (80%)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Realized Trades (Feb 28 - Dec 31, 2025):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Win rate: <strong>53%</strong> of 72 trades</p></li><li><p>Average return: <strong>11.2%</strong></p></li><li><p>Average days held: <strong>113.2</strong> days</p></li><li><p>Portfolio turnover: <strong>136%</strong> (first 10 months or 163% annualized)</p></li></ul><p><strong>Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):</strong></p><ul><li><p>Beta: <strong>0.25</strong></p></li><li><p>Sharpe Ratio: <strong>3.48</strong> (vs. 1.25 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Sortino Ratio: <strong>4.55</strong> (vs. 1.61 for S&amp;P 500)</p></li><li><p>Maximum Drawdown: <strong>-12.2%</strong> (vs. -16.2% for S&amp;P 500)</p></li></ul><p>The Sharpe Ratio of 3.48 is exceptional, indicating strong risk-adjusted performance well above the benchmark.</p><p>As of December 31st, the portfolio&#8217;s largest position (8.9%) remains APM (Andean Precious Metals), up over <strong>+584.8%</strong> since entry. The portfolio holds four multibaggers: three precious metals miners and a Swedish industrial stock. A fifth stock (Polish industrial) is just below the multibagger marker: 99.5%. The portfolio currently has 3 realized multibagger trades (a consumer, industrial and technology stock) and 4 others realized trades with +88% returns.</p><p>Current allocation remains concentrated in microcaps (72%) and small caps (28%), with Materials (27%) and Industrials (21%) as the largest sector exposures.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg" width="1456" height="286" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:286,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:74298,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.thealphaengineer.com/i/183908722?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A4yq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd3153-b265-4229-ae08-5e866158d6d0_1579x310.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>Deep-Dive Stock Performance</strong></h2><p>December brought continued strong performance from the deep-dive positions, alongside an important update on the Thunderbird Entertainment acquisition.</p><p><strong>Deep-Dive Summary</strong></p><ul><li><p>Average return across all 7 positions: <strong>+108%</strong></p></li><li><p>Original 4 positions (pre-November): <strong>+186%</strong> average</p></li><li><p>Multibaggers: 3 of 7 (APM, MSA, SRB)</p></li></ul><p>The three multibagger deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) are available to all subscribers&#8212;you can find them in the <a href="https://www.thealphaengineer.com/s/deep-dives">deep-dives section</a>.</p><p><strong>Precious Metals Miners &#8211; Outstanding Performance</strong></p><p>The three precious metals miners continue their exceptional run, benefiting from gold and silver hitting new all-time highs in December:</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Jan 4, 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-jan-4-2026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-jan-4-2026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 04 Jan 2026 11:52:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b1dbb42-288a-4d7a-ba99-7c18a0a00687_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Portfolio Transactions - Dec 28, 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio]]></description><link>https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-dec-28-2025</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thealphaengineer.com/p/portfolio-transactions-dec-28-2025</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cosyn]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 11:22:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9772921b-d887-426a-b41f-1cb289ad6aec_856x614.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[
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